Consumer Advocate Releases �Homeownership Crystal Ball�

Sounds a little wacky to me.
I recoil at the catastrophic, "let's all run from the monster" speak, because I am a believer in the power of consumer confidence (and consumer fear). I consider some of these "chicken littles" who are predicting the implosion of the market to be economic terrorists. That being said, interest rates have been rising and perhaps we're better off knowing than not.
It might be worth a look...md
Consumer Advocate Releases �Homeownership Crystal Ball�

GIMME SHELTER By BRADEN KEIL - New York Post Online Edition: Realestate

THIS BLOG IS NOT YOUR AVERAGE GOSSIP COLUMN, BUT THERE'S SOME PRETTY JUICY STUFF IN BRADEN'S COLUMN THIS WEEK:

GIMME SHELTER By BRADEN KEIL - New York Post Online Edition: Realestate

All The Real Estate Chatter of the Day

The Sellsius Guys go to Inman Connect in SF. Lots of chatter here. Check it out:
sellsius� real estate blog � Blog Archive � Inman Real Estate Connect SF 2006

RealEstateJournal | Undeveloped Plots Draw Buyers As the Housing Market Softens

These new lots are listed for million$ here in the Hamptons. In the last five years, land has appreciated at a slightly higher pace than homes. With all the preservation taking place, it's no surprise. Fewer vacant lots = higher prices.





RealEstateJournal | Undeveloped Plots Draw Buyers As the Housing Market Softens

World's most expensive homes revealed | Business | Breaking News 24/7 - NEWS.com.au (25-07-2006)

World's most expensive homes revealed | Business | Breaking News 24/7 - NEWS.com.au (25-07-2006)

Check Out This Lobster

sellsius� real estate blog

The Meeting House Restaurant - Amagansett

We've enjoyed our time there, for sure. Link below will bring you to reviews for TMHR and other Hamptons and NYC spots. I like this code.tv. md


CODE.TV Hamptons

Guess Who's Coming To The Party...

ON THE WEB - Newsday.com

I guess this is a gratifying moment for all of us who are seeking to contribute to the conversation of business and life. Thanks, Newsday. md

ON THE WEB - Newsday.com

A much broader Scope - Newsday.com

In its second go-around, Scope Hamptons will take over Wainscott's East Hampton Studios, a former airplane hangar, and much of the tony beach community, with its lineup of benefits and chic after-hour shindigs, Friday through next Sunday.

Scope Hamptons, Friday July 14 through next Sunday July 16 at East Hampton Studios, 75 Industrial Road, Wainscott, 11 a.m.-8 p.m. For more information, call 212-268-1522 or go to www.scope-art.com.

A much broader Scope - Newsday.com

2006 New York State Legislative Session a Success for Consumers and Realtors

NYSAR.com:
The 2006 legislative session came to a close late into the evening on Friday, June 23. Several NYSAR-supported bills passed both houses of the Legislature.

The Commission Protection Act, which previously was approved by the Senate, passed the Assembly for the first time. The bill, which now goes to Gov. George Pataki for his consideration, would place disputed real estate commissions into an escrow account held by county clerks if an affidavit to commission has been previously filed and the proper parties have been notified. This is great news for Realtors, since we have been operating with no leverage when sellers arbitrarily refuse to pay earned commissions. This is also good news for buyers, because it will help keep deals from falling apart over commission issues caused by disingenuous sellers.


The real estate education enhancement bill passed in both houses. If signed by the governor, the bill will increase the classroom hours required to obtain a salesperson's license from 45 to 75 hours passed both houses during the last two weeks of the legislative session. The proposal also increases from one year to two the number of years of supervision to be eligible for a broker's license, requires office managers to hold a broker's license, eliminates the so-called "grandfather clause" exemption for continuing education (applies only to those licensed after the enactment of the bill into law), and the creation of new photo pocket identification cards. This is terrific news for everyone! This will raise the bar for entry into the field of real estate sales and brokerage. It will now take nearly twice the time, and presumably twice the cost of current licensing courses to get started. It will also result in more education for all members.

NYSAR-supported legislation that revises the current real estate agency disclosure form passed the state Senate on Thursday, June 22. The bill had previously passed the state Assembly and will go to Gov. George Pataki for his consideration. The legislation replaces the current form with two separate forms for sales and lease transactions. I'm thrilled at this one. Maybe there is a chance that the new form will be written in plain English that might even make sense! Let's hope so (fingers crossed).

All in all, a good year legislatively. I'm in favor of almost anything that will bring greater professionalism and reasonable accountability to the process of listing and selling real estate. md

NPR : Behind the Ever-Expanding American Dream House

The Hamptons are among the most magical places on earth. Every year, the NYTimes, New York Magazine and numerous other publications come out with their "Hamptons Are Dying" article, where the author happens to be someone who knows someone who knows someone else who wears Gucci loafers and sold their house in the Hamptons (and made $500,000 in two years) because they went to Sullivan County and bought a 15-acre parcel for $125,000. Wow! Unbelievable! That's tooooo gooooood toooo beeee truuuuueee! Everyone's going to do that and that will be the end of the Hamptons!!!! Yeah, right. Hey, send me a postcard, will you? While former farmland and wooded sites continue to be developed, changing the vistas we have seen for generations, there is still a tremendous amount of open and preserved space. The Peconic Preservation Tax has worked! One of the most common complaints is that houses are getting bigger and bigger all the time. "It's starting to look like Syosset, where you can pass a cup of flour between houses", whined an acquaintance recently. "No", I said. "Flowers maybe, but not flour." Most of these people use their stoves as planters. Aside from our tastes becoming more upscale and desirous of more square footage, the price of land has appreciated even more greatly on the East End than the prices of homes. That means that in order for builders to justify the end price for the homes they put on these expensive lots, they need to make them larger and with more amenities. Many builders use the formula of thirds: land cost 1/3, building cost 1/3, profit 1/3. So, if a plot costs $500,000, the building cost might be $500,000 and the home should sell for $1.5MM. That builds-in a reasonable profit margin. Make that lot a $5MM purchase price and you end up with a $15MM home value, at least. With half-acre lots going for over $1MM in the villages these days and one-acre lots in the woods and fields going for the same, it drives the size of the houses larger in order to justify the end price. Now with energy costs going up significantly, I see a movement toward more efficiency but with super-high quality. We'll see how much bigger things go with fuel oil at $3.50 a gallon. Hey, can you spare a cup of oil?
NPR : Behind the Ever-Expanding American Dream House

Going Once, Going Twice...

According to Braden Keil, NYPost:

Raising the Eyre
The last remaining example of the famed architect Wilson Eyre's works on Long Island is going on the auction block. Eyre, the founder of House & Garden magazine, designed and built the Arts and Crafts-style mansion in Quiogue in 1904 for manufacturer Theodore Conklin (whose great-grandson Ted Conklin owns the famed American Hotel in Sag Harbor).
Sitting on 7 bayfront acres, the 15-room home, at more than 10,000 square feet, includes seven bedrooms, five full baths and two half-baths, a media room, a wine cellar/tasting room, a billiards room, a gym, a chef's kitchen and staff quarters with a separate entrance. The house, renovated and updated since the present owners, lawyers Lynn Krominga and Amnon Shiboleth, bought it in two 3 1/2-acre parcels in 2000 for a total of $4 million, features original woodwork, Tiffany lighting, stone fireplaces and century-old rhododendrons.
The auction is not absolute, which means the owners have imposed a minimum price. All sealed bids, which require a $250,000 certified or cashier's check, are due at the Sheldon Good & Co. office in Manhattan by 4 p.m. on July 13. The last available viewing of the property is Saturday. According to the rules, prospective buyers have to schedule at least two days in advance - which is today.

Wishing A Happy, Safe and Healthy Independence Day To All!

PCWorld.com - The 100 Best Products of the Year

Many of us who are posting and reading blogs are technophiles. Here's some info from a trusted source:

PCWorld.com - The 100 Best Products of the Year

Long Island's East End Wine Country 3.0

Grape-growing and wine-making have become a cottage industry in the last 30 years on the North Fork of Long Island. Compared to our forefathers in California and our ancestors in France, we still have a long way to go. That being said, there are several wonderful wines, albeit expensive, being produced here. I believe the cabernet franc is the best.

Begun by the Hargraves in 1973, the winery business on the Nofo has exploded, especially in the last 10 years. Many a semi-retired executive has tried his or her hand at it, only to find out how difficult (and expensive) it can be. Now the business is entering its third level, and with that move, the stakes will rise, hopefully along with the quality of the juice. How lucky are we? md

Changing of the Guard on the East End - New York Times

Say A Prayer for Bob

Robert Hughes, Managing Director of the Corcoran Group office in Southampton, New York, is reportedly in a coma after being found unconscious at his home last Saturday.

Bob spent years in advertising in Manhattan before coming to the Hamptons and selling real estate with Sotheby's. He then went on to manage the Southampton office for Prestigious Properties before joining Corcoran in 2004.

Bob is one of the most personable, well-liked and admired managing brokers in the business. We wish him the best and hope for a speedy and thorough recovery. md

How Refreshing! A Place That's More Eccentric Than The Hamptons

Paradise Bought in Los Angeles - New York Times

Hamptons Holdouts - Unique Houses That Haven't Sold -- New York Magazine

We've all seen the signs whose colors have faded from the sunlight, as they get knocked over by wind storms and snowplows during the winter and then covered up by the tall grasses of summer. Sadly, some of these signs appear to have become permanant parts of the landscape. Here are a few from Steven Gaines. There's plenty more to come...md


Hamptons Holdouts - Unique Houses That Haven't Sold -- New York Magazine

Average Mortgage Rates Hit 4-Year High

Mortgage Rates Hit 4-Year High(June 22, 2006) -- An increase in mortgage costs last week discouraged home owners from refinancing.Refinancing's share of all loan applications slipped to 35.5 percent last week from 35.7 percent the previous week, and was down 43 percent from the same time last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.The MBA says its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, last week declined 0.8 percent to 567.6.The average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.73 percent, the highest it’s been since May 2002. The average rate for a 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.37 percent and a one-year ARM increased to 6.22 percent.— REALTOR® Magazine Online

Harris Interactive | The Harris Poll - Doctors, Dentists and Nurses Most Trusted Professionals to Give Advice, According to Harris Poll of U.S. Adults

You don't want to see where real estate agents scored...md

Harris Interactive The Harris Poll - Doctors, Dentists and Nurses Most Trusted Professionals to Give Advice, According to Harris Poll of U.S. Adults

The Rant About The Rants - Don't Mess With Blanche

Are Banks, Newspapers Behind Recent Real Estate Industry Rants?by Blanche Evans

First, the blow below the belt.
On Tuesday, June 20, 2006, dozens of newspapers across the nation published the so-called report, "How The Real Estate Cartel Harms Consumers and How Consumers Can Protect Themselves," by the executive director of the Consumer Federation of America.
Then the uppercut, published the same day in the New York Times by a Brookings Institution senior fellow. "Commission Accomplished" is also a diatribe that criticizes the real estate industry and its commissions. Both reports are unabashed, unsubstantiated opinion pieces, and what's strange is that they both appeared on exactly the same day. Why?
Dozens of news services gleefully joined in the tarring and feathering of the real estate industry by reporting the CFA opinion piece as news when it should have been placed in the editorial section along with the Brookings Institution fellow's piece.
News organizations reported that the consumer group called the real estate industry a "cartel." Not one paper questioned why neither the CFA report or the Brookings Institute editorial had any quotes, facts, or anything other than the opinion of the authors. The real estate industry's side of the commission question was all but ignored by virtually every newspaper.
This isn't journalism. It's complicity. And with good reason -- newspapers are part of a different cartel -- the "Replace-Realtors-With-Us" Cartel.
To begin with, real journalists should ask themselves why they're getting a gift of a story. There are two sides to every story, and if you don't find out what the other side is, you're not doing your job.
Here are just a few questions that should have crossed these journalists' minds:
Why is opinion being released as news? What does the CFA or Brookings Institute have to gain from slamming real estate agents and what they earn?
Is this story true? Can it be substantiated? Are the facts correct? Why would CFA acknowledge that real estate commissions have come down from 6-7 percent, yet accuse the "real estate cartel" of holding consumers hostage to paying 6-7 percent? One of these can't be true -- so which is it? In all fairness, the CFA report dimly acknowledges other studies that have shown that commissions have fallen as much as two points nationwide, but failed to name the studies. And, if commissions are falling, then what's the complaint?
By now, any decent journalist's suspicions should be in overdrive. Next question. Why now? And what about that timing? Two prestigious consumer-oriented groups slamming commissions on exactly the same day? Sorry, folks, but that's a little too coincidental for me.
So, let's turn the tables. Who's interested in using the biggest newspapers in the nation to slam the real estate industry? And why did each paper go along? Why did the Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post and dozens of others do the exact same story in the exact same way without giving any attention or voice to the other side?
That should make a good journalist wonder: Do the newspapers have something to gain, too? Are newspapers part of the "Replace-Realtors-With-Us Cartel"? Let's find out.
(By the way, we don't have to prove there's a cartel. All we have to do is suggest that one exists, just as the research institutions and newspapers have done. Let's see if we can smear the "Replace-Realtors-With-Us" Cartel with as few facts as they used to smear the real estate industry.)
What we have is two venerable research institutions slamming real estate commissions on exactly the same day using the biggest name newspapers in the country. Coincidence? No. Planned attack. Yes. So who are the generals in the war room?
So find out using some questions from Journalism 101. We have the what happened and where it happened, so who, when, and why?
Who: Both research organizations claim to benefit consumers. Can the answer can be found in the donor-contributors to these institutions? Who is asking for these so-called opinion reports and editorials to be published, and what do they have to gain?
Surprise! With only a little digging we find out who. Guess who's been a major contributor to the Consumer Federation of America since 2001? "Bank of America," says Tom Stevens, president of the National Association of Realtors. Bank of America is the leading voice to get banks into real estate.
And to the Brookings Institution? "LendingTree and Bank of America funded a research report that was very unfavorable to the real estate industry last year," says Stevens.
Hmmmm. Now we're getting somewhere.
When: Since it was obvious from the timing of the two reports that they were intended to do maximum damage to the real estate industry, what was so important about this date - Tuesday, June 20, 2006? Why would more eyes have been tuned to this story on that particular date?
Turns out there was a reason. Congressman Mike Oxley -- that friend of banks and enemy of Realtors and chairman of the Financial Services Committee (that oversees banks) was scheduled to hold hearings about the real estate industry this week. (Oxley's number one campaign contributor category is commercial banks, by the way.) Unfortunately, due to a personal integrity problem, he had to cancel. Too late to pull the CFA release and the Brookings editorial? We wonder. Oxley is in hot water over alleged violations of federal campaign finance law. He has bigger fish to fry than Realtors right now.
Why: What do these people have to gain? It's no secret that banks want to get into real estate, and have used everything from the Treasury, to Oxley, to HUD, to the Department of Justice to accomplish it. They are the leaders of the Replace-Realtors-With-Us Cartel.
But guess what? There's a willing ally. Newspapers want to get into real estate, too. So they're only too happy to pile on Realtors. And they come with a handy cartel of their own!
Most of the major newspapers that published the CFA commission rants are partners in a strategic venture called Classified Ventures. The strategic partners, "whose objectives are to collectively capitalize on the revenue growth in the online classified advertising categories of automotive, apartments, and real estate," are Belo Corporation, Gannett Company, Knight Ridder, Inc., The McClatchy Company, Tribune Company, and The Washington Post Company.
Having had their butts kicked by Craigslist and eBay, not to mention Realtor.com, the newspaper cartel members are determined to get their classified ad business back. Managed by former Bank of America executive Tim Fagan, Classified Ventures owns HomeGain, a company that gives real estate agents the opportunity to compete for customers. One of the criteria used is commissions! May the lowest agent win! Then the agent gets to pay a hefty "referral fee" to HomeGain. (Whoever says commissions haven't come down hasn't been doing his homework! Another popular commission-crushing idea to get Realtors to give rebates to buyers, paid for out of referral fees they've given to companies like HomeGain and LendingTree. What's cool is that sellers don't know they're giving something to the buyer and the online company looks like a hero. What will they think of next?)
Also, because newspapers have largely been denied access to the real estate cartel's MLS listings, (even while they charge real estate agents ridiculous classified and display ad fees,) they are forced to pursue the FSBO market. According to the Classified Ventures website, the company allows consumers "access listings throughout our national network of local newspapers."
Hmmm. It's all coming together!
(Wasn't that clever -- making an accusation look like fact? So, prove it isn't true, Chicago, Washington, et al.)
Realtors - are you angry yet? Have you had enough yet? It's high time the real estate industry hit 'em back where it hurts, just like they hit the real estate industry.
What really ought to happen here is two things:
Every Realtor in America should jerk their housing ads to any newspaper that published the Brookings or the CFA "editorials." We should have a advertising holiday where not one agent puts an ad in the newspaper out of protest. Then, we can see if not having newspaper ads really hurt sales, which my guess is, it won't.
Forward this story to every Realtor in America so they'll stop putting money in the enemy's war chest. Every dime you give to newspapers is a dime that will be used to put you out of business. Stop supporting any company that wants to put you out of business!
If money talks for donors, it should sure as hell talk for advertisers.
Published: June 21, 2006

Related Articles:
Consumer Federation Report Repeats 1996 Accusations
Rotten Media Spin On Realtors Begins Anew
Bank Of America Launches Real Estate Center
Blanche Evans is the award-winning editor of Realty Times, the Internet's largest independent real estate news service, where she oversees the nation's leading real estate writers and columnists.
Known for her keen insight on real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is the author of two best-selling real estate books: The Hottest e-Careers In Real Estate, an Internet marketing primer for real estate professionals, and Homesurfing.net: The Insider's Guide To Buying And Selling Your Home Using The Internet, a comprehensive homebuying and selling guide.
In 2006, Blanche will have three new consumer books published, including:
Housing Bubbles, Booms and Busts, McGraw-Hill
National Association of REALTORS® Guide to Selling A Home, Wiley & Sons
National Association of REALTORS® Guide To Buying a Home, Wiley & Sons
In addition to authoring books and her duties at Realty Times, Blanche is sought out for her expert opinions by the nation's premier print and broadcast news organizations, including: CNN, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. She's also in demand by real estate organizations -- from MLSs to real estate brokerage companies to large franchises -- who hire Blanche to address their groups and provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry happenings.
Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, recognized as one of nine "Notables," and was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR," (Delahaye-Bacon's, 2005)
She can be reached at blanche@realtytimes.com

Commission Accomplished - New York Times

Theory is that these articles are written by either:
1- the few people left in the country whose family and friends don't rely on real estate sales for a main part of their income; or
2- resentful folks who have been priced out of the market they wish to live in because their income has not kept pace with real estate price appreciations.

It's a very responsible position, this journalism thing. You'd think that they would take it seriously!

Commission Accomplished - New York Times

The New York Observer Real Estate: Southampton Mansion Asking $48 Million

Southampton Mansion Asking $48 Million
Out on the East End, where many New Yorkers dream of being right about now, there is a high-priced mansion soon hitting the luxury market.

In Southampton, telecommunications mogul Donald Burns is preparing to list his massive house on Lake Agawam for $48 million, according to a source with knowledge of the listing.

Located on 10.5 acres, the grand home has a distinguished legacy since it was built in 1911. Architect Goodhue Livingston, of the renowned firm Trowbridge & Livingston, both owned and designed the home-which measures over 20,000 square feet. Mr. Livingston's firm also designed such notable buildings as the St. Regis Hotel, the J.P. Morgan headquarters on Wall Street, and the Hayden Planetarium.

Decades later, the family of Hamptons real-estate broker Michael Shaheen owned the palatial house, before selling it to Mr. Burns for around $20 million in 1999.

The sprawling property is comprised of three parcels: in addition to the main house, there is a 19th century barn and a seperate guest cottage. Also, there are two pools (one for the guest house, of course), a spa, and tennis courts.

Brokers Jay Flagg and Raymond Smith, of Prudential Douglas Elliman, will be listing the property, according a source. Mr. Flagg declined to comment.

- Michael Calderone

"Consumer" Report More Like Crabby Bickering

"In our twenty years of research and reporting on the residential real estate industry there has never been a more irresponsible, speculative, worthless report than this one. There is no research to back up a single opinion, just the authors using the bully pulpit to inflame fears among consumers about housing professionals and take shots at one of the most useful industries ever conceived.

There is much we can do to improve service to consumers, but the prescriptions listed by Brobeck and Woodall are totally baseless and useless. We should forcefully rebut this report and thereafter ignore anything that comes out of the Consumer Federation of America if this is the kind of junk on which they put their names."
Steve Murray
Editor, REAL Trends

Steve Murray is one of the most highly regarded consultants to the real estate industry. He works with many of the leading companies in the industry, helping them to improve their quality of operations through better management and agent development.

The much-awaited CFA report, which is attached below, does read like a family squabble, with emotional accusations and finger pointing, delivered in a way as to hammer home the point that the complainer is a victim.

I agree with Steve, that we have much to do to improve our service to consumers. This report just creates a wider divide between realtor and consumer, and if you think about how many realtors there are out there, nothing good can come of it. md

HOW THE REAL ESTATE CARTEL HARMS CONSUMERS AND HOW CONSUMERS CAN PROTECT THEMSELVES - CONSUMER FEDERATION OF AMERICA

HAPPY FATHERS DAY

Another Interesting Perspective...

This writer from The Times (London) is not Dame Edna, but if you read it in The Dame's voice, it's even more enjoyable. Looking at our area through the eyes of a foreigner is sometimes refreshing. They see things we take for granted and sometimes arouse our awareness of our own backyards.

“Never be afraid to laugh at yourself, after all, you could be missing out on the joke of the century.” Dame Edna Everage quote.


Go the Long way - Sunday Times - Times Online

Out Of Touch Reporter Talks to Top Broker and Bottom-Fishing Customer

If I sound annoyed, it's because I am! I don't know where Dan Dorfman has been for the last ten years, since he unceremoniously left Money Magazine and CNBC after allegations of insider stock trading, but he is clearly reaching for readers by writing an article about Hamptons real estate. After speaking to perhaps the best broker in the Hamptons, Diane Saatchi, who made some great points about the market (that Dorfman seemed to ignore) he then goes on to quote this so-called "buyer" who is going around offering $995,000 on homes listed at $1.59MM. These people have reportedly been looking for three years. They'll be looking for a great deal longer unless they get realistic with their offers. These are they types that work real estate agents who don't value their own time to exhaustion, and then end up buying a fizbo. They either feel that they are entitled to something they aren't, or don't really have the money to buy and are lonely, and they know that real estate agents love new customers like St. Bernards like skiers with broken legs. Like I said, if I sound annoyed, it's because I am!

In this market, it's not uncommon for properties to sell at 95-102% of asking price. Granted, the number of propeties selling since late 2005 has been down, but the median and average prices continue to rise steadily. When things do slow down in this market, actual selling prices MIGHT drop to 89-95% of ask, which happened in 2001 and again in 2003 for a few months.

So...stick to things you know about, Dan. To those "buyers" he quoted, they better keep the rental catalogues handy. md

Hamptons Is Cooling - June 16, 2006 - The New York Sun

How to Catch a Workout, if Not a Wave - New York Times

Members of the Hamptons Paddle Club in New York.
Photo by Mark Paris for The New York Times

How to Catch a Workout, if Not a Wave - New York Times

Code.TV - Meeting House Restaurant

VERRRRRRY COOL!!! md

CODE.TV brings you first-look access to the newest and most exclusive restaurants, bars, clubs, stores, cultural venues, and more. Our hosts are passionate about discovering exceptional experiences and sharing them with you.

Tune in each weekday at www.code.tv to discover a new destination.

CODE.TV is privileged television.


EDITORIAL POLICY
CODE.TV does not accept promotional consideration; all content is strictly editorial unless otherwise indicated.

Manhattan Real Estate Prices Continue to Rise

New York City and The Hamptons are inextricably connected - just ask the limo drivers, helicopter pilots and personal assistants that make the 90-mile trip numerous times a week, especially during the summer.

A study completed a few years ago showed that 50% of Hamptons real estate buyers were from NYC, 30% were from Long Island (Nassau and Western Suffolk) and the remaining 20% of buyers came from all over the globe. I suspect that those numbers have not changed much recently, although it's altogether possible that the 20% may have grown since the dollar has been so weak against foreign currencies lately. That being said, there have been times when NYC real estate prices were falling and Hamptons prices were stable. At the moment, they appear to be on par. md
NY1: Top Stories

RealEstateJournal | Owners of Million-Dollar Homes Are Not Who You'd Think

300 people were surveyed, and 35% of them own second homes. An additional 35% are considering buying a second residence. Gillespie says he doesn't see that penchant for owning a second home changing anytime soon, despite rising interest rates.
The study actually found that 70% of respondents would not change their planned luxury purchases even if rates keep rising.

RealEstateJournal | Owners of Million-Dollar Homes Are Not Who You'd Think

Bernanke and Inflation: A Headache for Markets

Lou Barnes is a mortgage broker and nationally syndicated columnist based in Boulder, Colo. He writes for Inman News, an online real estate trade news service. He's one of the best, most informed real estate business writers around. He says interest rates may have topped out:

"Connect the dots…the Fed is reacting, leading only in its insistent forecast of economic slowdown ahead, a forecast joined by everyone, if only because every central bank on the planet is working to make it so. One scare story in the bond market has held that foreign rate hikes would drive up U.S. rates; didn't happen on Thursday, maybe because frightened stock money went to bonds, more likely because the whole world economy is topping out.

One of the most disciplined investment managers, Brad Bickham (Sergeant Bickham Lagudis) I think is on the trail of the right question, now: how slow will the slowdown be? Forget whether, and count on a reduction in inflation pressure. Bickham is looking for a soft landing (really hardly any landing at all), and his corporate earnings case is a good one. However, the behavior of stocks and commodities make me uneasy, especially about the deeply underpriced risk of credit default as central banks conclude four years of the easiest money any of us has ever seen."




WSJ.com - Bernanke and Inflation: A Headache for Markets

Soapbox | Appraisal Ethics, Ideas and Industry Issues

From Jonathan Miller's SOAPBOX:
Soapbox | Appraisal Ethics, Ideas and Industry Issues: "Today Hollywood is presenting us with a remake of The Omen, on this the purported birthday of the devil, 6-6-06. The original and the remake are being released 30 years apart, 1976 and 2006, and during both these periods we see some other similarities "

Housing Bubble About to Bust?

"On average, homeowners who have owned a home for at least three years feel that new mortgage interest rates will increase 1.6 percentage points over the next 12 months, with 50 percent expecting an increase between one and two percentage points. Sixteen percent anticipate a jump between three and four percentage points. "
Housing Bubble About to Bust? Consumers Say No in ING DIRECT National Survey:

TO BUY, OR NOT TO BUY...THAT IS THE QUESTION

OPINIONS ARE LIKE...
You would like to buy a second home in the Hamptons, but you're undecided; after all, your brother-in-law thinks you should wait until prices drop 30-40% before you jump in (and your brother-in-law rents because he's been waiting for Hamptons prices to drop 30-40% since 1997). News reports of Miami condo price drops are all over the place, as well as reports of the glut of pre-construction condo projects in Las Vegas, San Diego and Ft. Lauderdale. Virtually every business writer in the country has predicted a catastrophic collapse of the real estate market in a dramatic way. Have you noticed that since the web has entered its third dimension with blogs everywhere, online news and media reports, newstainment, Forbes, FNN, NYT, CNBC, etc., we can read the same story in three different publications, all written by different people? The real estate bubble has been a media darling since last fall and seems to have the shelf life of Monica Lewinski.

The agent you're working with in the Hamptons has sounded down lately. She says "nobody's buying...they're all waiting". She's had her real estate license for a year and a half after leaving a midtown ad agency for a "better life" in the Hamptons. She's never been through an ebb in the real estate business and was selling houses like non-fat sugar-free vanilla macchiatos until last fall.

BUY OR RENT?
So you're trying to decide between either renting a four-bedroom house with a pool for $40,000 for August through Labor Day, or pulling the trigger on that $1.5MM home you like so much in Watermill. You need some facts...fast.

First, screen calls from your brother-in-law. Second, do some research on your own. Third, get yourself a real estate broker with some experience, or at least someone who is part of an experienced sales team. One who knows how to look for opportunities in all types of markets.

GET THE FACTS
If you go to www.liprofiles.com, look under "Facts & Figures". By combining Southampton and East Hampton Township information, you'll end up with the following:

TOTAL SOUTHAMPTON AND EAST HAMPTON PROPERTY SALES (East End, South Fork)
Year.....# Sales......$ Volume.........Avg $......*Median $...%Inc
2002....3634.....2,405,599,090....661,970.....415,000.....100%
2003....3383.....2,727,731,500....806,305.....505,000.....122%
2004....3927.....3,991,663,068...1,016,466....636,667.....153%
2005....3439.....4,477,246,772...1,301,904....763,333.....184%
'06..Q1..633......1,057,961,290...1,671,345....829,833.....200%
*Median $ is estimate

The above figures indicate that for the first quarter of 2006, while the NUMBER of sales is down 25% vs '05 Q1 (849 vs. 633), the AVERAGE sales price is up 28% and the MEDIAN price is up 9%. Preliminary figures for April and May indicate that the same trend will continue: less number of sales and higher sales prices.

PRICES AND INTEREST RATES
So let's suppose that sales price increase rate slows by one-half and AVERAGE prices only go up 14% and MEDIAN prices only increase by 4.5%. Interest rates have increased roughly .5 to 1.0 point in the last six months, since the Fed has steadily increased its rates. If the interest rate goes up an additional .5 to 1.0 point in the next year, some people will be priced out of the homes they want.

An $850,000 mortgage at 6.5% interest calls for $5,373 in monthly payments. If you opt not to buy now and the property increases in value 10% (less than one-half the increases of the last four years), and if the interest rate on the now-$935,000 mortgage goes up to 7.5%, then payments will be $6,538, an increase of nearly 22% in the monthly payment. Make that a $1.5MM mortgage under the same scenario and payments go up $2,056 ($9,481 vs $11,537). And don't forget about that $40,000 rental.

So buy now, or buy later? You make the call. md

Welcome To "The Beach"

Lockhart Steele, Ben Leventhal and Noa Taffet of Curbed.com, the popular real estate blog that began in NYC and has stretched out to SF, have launched THE BEACH, which appears to be all about the Hamptons. Check it out - they've got some pretty neat things on the site. md



The Beach: Post-Plywood East: Golden Pear & New Paradise

When Does A Listing Stop Being A Listing?

We all know that some sellers put their homes on the market either for that "everything has a price" price or just to be able to have their friends see their house advertised for $XX millions. "Pssst! See that woman in the white dress with the big diamond earrings? She's the one who married that guy who left her that house and she's now cashing out." It's a familiar story...after three years on the market at an exhorbitant asking price, the property listing becomes virtually invisible, or worse, fodder for jokes (until, that is, some broker stumbles upon a buyer who walks into their office looking for...you know the rest).

Most Expensive Homes in the U.S. 2006: Northeast - Forbes.com

Sebonack Golf Course Ready To Roll

Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary

What's Happening In The Hamptons Restaurant Scene

Here's a terrific summation of Hamptons restaurants; new, old, nofo, sofo. md

Digging In Out East
A new crop of restaurants welcomes visitors for summer dining


BY PETER M. GIANOTTI
STAFF WRITER; BY JOAN REMINICK. STAFF WRITER

May 31, 2006
SOUTH FORK HAMPTONS PLAIN & FANCY

The annual turnover in Hamptons' real estate is under way. And new restaurants are ready for the Spielbergs, Baldwins and you.

Westhampton Beach

The most awaited restaurant in Westhampton Beach is the relocated PassionFish. Restaurateur-chef Tom Schaudel's South Fork foray brings his eclectic new American food to the waterside Dune Deck Hotel, where Starr Boggs once reigned. The perpetual-motion Schaudel just turned the original PassionFish in Woodbury into The Mansion, a retro-formal venue for more traditional cooking. Veteran diners will remember that Schaudel's first East End showcase was the long-departed Downtown Grille in Montauk. 379 Dune Rd., Westhampton Beach; 631-288-5250.

Southampton

In Southampton, Lori Restaurant & Wine Bar stylishly succeeds James on Main. Chef Michael Meehan, formerly of the Mill River Inn in Oyster Bay and Tupelo Honey in Sea Cliff, among others, oversees the hot new American kitchen. This well-received eatery is owned by Lori Escallier, a co-owner of James on Main. She oversees the dining room. 75 Main St., Southampton; 631-283-7575.

Water Mill

Trata East was slated to open last season in Water Mill, but bloomed this spring. The bright, handsome restaurant specializes in grilled whole fish and the lighter dishes of Greek cuisine. Trata East is the Hamptonian offspring of Trata Estiatorio in Manhattan. 1020 Montauk Hwy., Water Mill; 631-726-6200.

East Hampton

The Laundry, an East Hampton fixture for decades, moves chef and name to Route 27, at the address occupied for years by The Farmhouse and for what seemed only days by The Purple Cow. Chef-partner Andrew Engle continues in the kitchen, which emphasizes the American dishes from the original Laundry. 341 Pantigo Rd., East Hampton; 631-324-3199.

Leif Hope owns the building where Laundry thrived. Hope, who's known as the organizer of the annual charity artists-and-writers softball game, has opened Leif Hope's Restaurant. He has kept unchanged the modernist establishment designed by architect Norman Jaffe. And his summery, very Hamptons menu includes the house hamburger as well as steaks and seafood. It already has a core of regulars. 31 Race Lane, East Hampton, 631-324-3199.

Sag Harbor

The increasingly Hamptonized downtown of Sag Harbor greets another eatery from restaurateur Ed Kleefield, who brought JL East to East Hampton and Madame Tong's to Southampton. Mumbo Gumbo is the name of his new Cajun-themed barbecue establishment. It's located where Jeff & Eddy's used to be. Figure on peanuts-in-the-shell, big TVs, lotsa cocktails and 10 types of gumbo, along with po'boy oyster sandwiches, Southern fried chicken and "five-napkin" barbecue. 62 Main St., Sag Harbor; 631-725-0055.

And the Golden Pear Cafe, a breakfast-and-lunch staple in Southampton, Bridgehampton and East Hampton, opens its fourth branch in Sag Harbor. The new muffin magnet is on the former site of the Harbor Deli. 111 Main St., Sag Harbor; 631-725-2270.

Amagansett

Amagansett's Napeague Stretch restaurant gives way to 27 Lobster and Surf Shack, the unwieldy name of which sums up its ambitions. Expect lobsters, Cajun dishes, Maryland blue crabs and plenty of tropical and frozen drinks with names such as "flaming volcano" and "dirty banana." 2095 Montauk Hwy., Amagansett; 631-267-6980.

And Amagansett also greets The Meeting House, where you'll find fare from seafood to meat loaf. Local artists' work decorates the newcomer. 4 Amagansett Square Dr.; 631-267-2764.

More here...
Digging In Out East -- Newsday.com

Former Warhol Estate Price and Broker Adjustment

We visited Eothen, the oceanfront compound of the late Andy Warhol, on Wednesday. Warhol's film partner and current owner Paul Morrissey was there, as were throngs of real estate brokers and a troupe of models and fashion photographers who took a lunch break to allow us to walk through the five rustic, shabby chic houses/cottages and around the grounds unimpeded.

Morrissey has had the compound, which sits at the end of a long dirt driveway opposite the Deep Hollow Ranch, on the market for years with what seems like nearly every brokerage house in the Hamptons. The newly-adjusted price has dropped from $50MM to $40MM. I refer to these listings as "marquee" listings. Both the broker and the seller enjoy the attention that the listing brings them, even if they are privately certain that the property won't sell even close to the asking price.

That being said, the Hamptons are famous for unique and truly incredible transactions that leave most people stunned (including the broker that made the deal and stands to make a six- or even seven-figure commission). Lightning does strike in this market. It looks like Mr. Morrissey and the new listing agents are doing a rain dance. (So am I - let me know if you'd like to view the property, as it would be my pleasure to make the arrangements.) md

Happy Start To Summer!!!!

The beach? What beach? Ohhhh, THAT beach...

The Hamptons' Most Coveted Spots - New York Times

Top 2% of Market Selling As Overall Sales Volume Falls

Numbers...numbers...number$

In the Hamptons during the first quarter of 2006:
41 properties over $3MM transferred
15 properties over $5MM transferred and
15 properties over $10MM did as well
That's 71 properties over $3MM changing hands.
The high price for the quarter was the $43MM Schwartzman sale on Further Lane in East Hampton. md

Check out numbers for San Francisco and Santa Barbara, Ca in the article below.

RealEstateJournal | Top 2% of Market Still Selling As Overall Sales Volume Falls

Broad-Brushing A Mega Mini Market

Hamptons
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The Hamptons
The Hamptons refers specifically to the towns of Southampton and East Hampton on the South Fork, Suffolk County, New York on the east end of Long Island, in Suffolk County, New York.

It is a well-known summer colony. Parts of the Hamptons are well known for being a playground for the rich and are frequented by residents of New York City particularly during the summer months for weekend getaways. This has given rise to the phrases "house in the Hamptons"."

You can't broad-brush national real estate trends on the Hamptons. Well, of course you can, but you will typically miss out on some necessary information that can either make you or save you lots of money - if that matters to you. With over $4.5 Billion in real estate transactions in 2005 and an average sales price over $1MM, the Hamptons surpass the sales volumes of many US cities and some small states.

Fact is, some people are not "day-trading" real estate - they actually want to have a home to live in either full-time or as a vacation spot. I love those people. They're the ones who ride bicycles to the beach and linger on Main Street talking with friends.

For the rest of the gang, there is no shortage of information around to use to tweak your real estate portfolio. Just remember, "The Hamptons" is a unique place that cannot accurately be analyzed or assessed by simply lumping it in with any other market. It's much more complicated than that, but it is certainly worth the effort. md

MONEY Magazine: Real Estate 2006

Taxes Are Being Questioned Everywhere

It's interesting that when property appreciations are flying high, less attention is paid to tax increases. But the minute things start to slow, folks come out in droves.

Recently, there was a near revolt here on the East End in Southampton Township when town assessors adjusted assessments as planned. Many owners (who remained quiet when they were under-assessed the first time around) blew their stacks when they received reassessment notices closer to their fair market value.
Over a thousand residents showed up and stood in the rain last week in Hampton Bays waiting for their grievance opportunity.

Another point worth noting; many of the spring votes for local school tax increases on the East End have been voted down by residents, leaving school districts in a pinch and in need of finding ways to reduce expenses.

The article below outlines the row over resident/non-resident property taxes in Florida. md

RealEstateJournal | Florida Snowbirds Question Fairness of Property Tax

Matrix � [In The Media] Fox News Clip for 5-19-06

I believe Jonathan J. Miller is one of the brightest people in the real estate field - anywhere. Below he speaks on Fox News. Always a pleasure to listen to. md





Matrix � [In The Media] Fox News Clip for 5-19-06

Immediate threat of 7% mortgage rate disappears

Mortgage rates have defied the predictions of those who believed they would be higher than they currently are after the Fed interest rate run-up of the last several months. That being said, while higher rates comprise just one of the factors that has taken some of the steam out of investors in the mid-range, most of the high-end investors don't care. They want what they want when they want it, and many high-end purchases don't need mortgages.

The following article is from Lou Barnes. He sees the skittishness of the markets, including mortgage interest rates, as being due to the many contradicting data points that have come out in recent weeks. md




Inman Real Estate News - Immediate threat of 7% mortgage rate disappears

Most Expensive Homes In The U.S. 2006 - Forbes.com

Most Expensive Homes In The U.S. 2006 - Forbes.com

Top 2% of Market Still Selling ...

HREO.COM displays 493 listings over $5MM in all of the Hamptons (including some duplicates for co-exclusives and open listings).
There are:
30 listings at $20MM plus
100 listings at $10MM plus
363 listings between $5-10MM
673 listings between $3-5MM
2242 listings between $1-3MM and
1643 listings at $1MM or less

That's over 5000 homes for sale in a market that sells between 2400-2600 homes a year. md





RealEstateJournal | Top 2% of Market Still Selling As Overall Sales Volume Falls

Hamptons Chit-Chat Primer

From Memorial Day to Labor Day, be prepared to chat while on line for your health muffin at The Golden Pear Cafe. md

Investor's Business Daily: Breaking News

The Catskills MUST Be Back. They've Got NIMBY's!

Wall Street Journal reports that the former Carvel estate in Upstate New York is under plans for a golf course and a number of people aren't very happy about it. md


RealEstateJournal | Opposition Grows Against Plan To Build Golfing Community

Have You Ever Heard of a QPRT?

Will you be passing that property on to future generations?
Great information on real estate trusts from Toni Haber, PDE NYC. md
link below:


New York City Real Estate Market Guide: Translating the Secret Language of Real Estate

Kaa-Choo! You, Too?

I didn't have allergies until I hit 40 years old. All of my cousins suffered miserably as children. I believed I was lucky to have dodged that bullet. Well, that bullet hits me now. I thought for a few years that I was getting a coincidental "spring cold", after all, I don't have allergies! Think again. It's amazing how Claritin works on my "spring cold". md

Some pretty good advice below:
Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice Too Much Spring Is In The Air

It Has Been Said...

...that everyone becomes an "environmentalist" after they purchase their home.

The trend, nationwide and here in the Hamptons, has been toward significantly larger homes. Land is becoming scarce as a result of demand for new homes and preservation efforts. It also is becoming more expensive. Spec builders can't make desired profit margins from a small house on an expensive lot, so that effect drives the size and prices of homes as well, resulting in some subdivisions that are starting to look suburban.md

"Although opponents of sprawl believe they are making rational and disinterested diagnoses...the self-interest is clear in the case of the New Yorker who owns a weekend home in the Hamptons and rails against the continuing development of Long Island...families who have recently moved to the suburban periphery are often the most vociferous opponents of further development of exactly the same kind that created their own house, because that would destroy their views or reduce their access to the countryside..."

The link below is to a fairly in-depth essay on sprawl by Architectural Historian Robert Breugmann.
The American Enterprise: How Sprawl Got a Bad Name

Nutty House

Buying a house, whether it be a first, second or umpteenth home, is stressful and can bring out both the best and the worst in people. I have a degree in psychology, and I worked in the mental health field through college and for a few years after graduating. I figured that with all of my experience (and as my altruism waned), I at least wanted to get paid for my mediation skills, so I went into the restaurant and hotel business where there is no shortage of opinions on both sides of the bar.

During my divorce 8-9 years ago, my dear friend Dave was there for me non-stop during my days and nights of angst. I felt so grateful for his constant support and guilty at the same time, because when he went through his divorce 5 years earlier, I was nowhere to be found. I stayed away, like I was afraid I would catch the divorce flu.

I remember telling him one evening how guilty I felt that I wasn't there for him as he was there for me, and he said to me, "Don't worry, man, you just be there for the next guy".

When I got my real estate license, I decided that the way I would pay Dave back was by cheerfully handling the occasional home sale that comes along where there was a divorce involved. Luckily, I've learned not to take things that people say during "divorce psychosis" personally, because, holy mackerel, can things get nasty! I've been used as a figurative punching bag and expected to be a messenger of evil wishes on numerous occasions, which I have resisted.

While these sales are only a small fraction of my business, the work required for a home listing in a divorce situation is often arduous; it's difficult keeping the opposing parties focused on the goal of selling the property, where often there are so many memories and emotional attachments. That being said, I do get satisfaction out of serving the families and paying back my debt to dear old Dave. md

Check out this great NYT piece:

My Broker, My Therapist - New York Times

That 60's Show

Homes that we called "Modern" in the 60's became "Contemporary" in the 90's, and are now being called "Modern" once again. The picture here, with the hungry-looking chair, is of the inside of an East Hampton oceanfront home on the market for just south of $20MM.

I remember as a kid enjoying the ride to the beach in Westhampton as we drove down Dune Road in the family station wagon. "I see the Tee Vee house" one of the five of us would proclaim as we got to the point where we approached this oceanfront house, built on what we called stilts (pilings), that looked just like a big television. "I see the floating house" someone would sing to the tune of "naaaa...na...na...naaaa...na" as we went past La Ronde Beach Club and came upon a structure which looked like two huge diamonds made of white plastic on the bottom and clear plastic on the top, again propped up on pilings. We figured it was built that way so it would float in a big hurricane. I myself wanted to go up and knock on their plastic door to ask if I could come over during the next hurricane so I could be in the house when it floated away. I used to fantasize about where it would end up; on Main Street? By the Country Club? Maybe if it was a really big storm, it would end up next to the ice cream place on Montauk Highway and I would live there forever and have as many banana milkshakes as I wanted...forever.

Well, I never got the ride, the ice cream place is now a bank, my doctor told me to stay away from any and all milkshakes, and the houses that got washed away in the 1995 storm in what now has become the Village of Westhampton Dunes have almost all been replaced by post-modern McMansions.

But, alas, Modern Architecture is back! Modern homes are being bought and renovated, new modern homes are being built and sold for million$ (i.e. Houses at Sagaponak) and the pre-fab Modern Home has arrived. See the link below. md

ABC News: Boom Nation: Prefab Chic